Staub Sense

Today was one of those bad news good news days.

The bad news was that I got my tax bill.

The good news was that my taxes actually went down about $100.

Of course, the bad news was that his occurred because my house lost about 20% of its value during the last revaluation. Fortunately we’ve lived here for 30 years and we don’t have a mortgage. I pity people who bought their homes in the last 5 years and may find themselves under water.

The good news was that commercial properties only declined by about 9%. During the last revaluation in 2005 residential properties went up in value a lot more than commercial properties.  This caused a shift in the tax burden away from commercial property owners and toward homeowners. Now some of that has evened out a little.

According to the Department of Revenue Administration Manchester’s tax base shrank from 9.8 Billion to 8.2 Billion and that is bad news because homeowners in Manchester saw their home values decline by 15-20%. You might just say that this is just a correction, that homes were overpriced.  Other surrounding communities reported declines in property values as well, but not nearly as much. I read articles in the paper that Goffstown and Bow saw declines in the 6% range.

Why the discrepancy? The new way they do revals is based on sales of comparables. If people are willing to take less for their homes in order to get out of the city then that drives down property values and erodes the tax base.

While the decline in property values maybe a good thing in the short term it is not something we want to continue. At some point the people who remain will end up paying more and more for less and less in the way of services.

In order to stabilize property values we need to create a city where people want to buy homes and live. And what is the first question  a family asks when looking to buy a home? “How are the schools?”

I wouldn’t have minded spending that $100 on a school system that would protect my  property values.

Election day is just a few days away. It is important that you get out and vote. There are several wards where candidates are running unopposed, so that is likely to reduce turnout. Make sure YOU get out and vote and encourage your friends and neighbors to get out as well. We have same day registration so if you or your friend or your recently turned 18 child is not currently registered, bring a driver’s license or other proof of residency to the polls. It would be great if everyone who gets this email could bring one new voter to the polls.

In addition to the election for Mayor, aldermen, school board, and welfare commissioner there are two questions on the ballot. One is to approve the redistricting of ward boundaries that were required to even out population based on the 2010 census. This is the reason I will be a resident of Ward 5 come January.

The second question amends the tax cap. I provided a description of the tax cap and its consequences on my blog two years ago. The original tax cap amendment limited the increase of both the amount of the budget and the tax rate to the rate of inflation as determined by the consumer price index for the previous year which for this budget season is predicted to be 1.1%.

At the same time the city and school district are responsible for funding the employee contracts which were renegotiated a couple of years ago as a short-sighted, oops, I mean short-term solution to balancing the budget. The contract raises were back loaded and they come due this year. It may be that they were counting on an increase in state education revenue under the new distribution formula. We were supposed to get an additional $30 mil a year but then the election of 2010 happened.

Add to this the fact that in the last revaluation our tax base plummeted 15-20%. (By comparison Goffstown’s declined by 6%. Families deserting the city gotta move somewhere.) It all adds up to a big problem. Maybe that is why so few people wanted to run for office this time.

Anyway, the referendum would make it only a spending cap and not a tax rate cap. Personally, I don’t know how they got away with this in the first place because the state Department of Revenue Administration holds the authority to set tax rates. They are putting them up now. Ours is usually one of the last ones they calculate. It almost always shows up after the election.

In years when the tax base declines, the referendum would limit increases in the budget to zero. (which will lead more people who can afford it to abandon the city, which will lead to lower property values, which will lead to a smaller tax base, which will lead to less money, fewer services, and more people leaving, and so on, until the entire population of the city is limited to four people living under an overhang in Rock Rimmon Park, or maybe Derryfield.)

The referendum also uses a three year average on the consumer price index, which in this case would mean an average of 2009-.1%, 2010-2.7% and predicted 2011-1.1% = 1.3% , or not much of an improvement.

Nashua has had a tax cap since 1993. It was often overridden, but a new state law affecting tax caps now requires a 2/3 majority. In today’s paper many of the aldermen said they would only override the tax cap in a dire situation. This year may qualify.

Get out and vote on NOVEMBER 8!

Last week when Chris Herbert challenged Mayor Ted Gatsas’ record on public safety at the Chamber of Commerce debate, Gatsas responded that things in Manchester are better than they are in Flint, Michigan. I took little comfort in that.

Flint, Michigan, is the birthplace of General Motors. It has been on hard times since the OPEC embargo of the 1970’s. The city, made famous by Michael Moore’s film Roger and Me, has lost half of its population and according to Wikipedia, is the process of tearing down thousands of abandoned homes in order to curb crime and reduce city services to a level where the population can sustain it. As of June 2009, approximately 1100 homes have been demolished in Flint, with one official estimating another 3000 more will have to be torn down. Yes, things aren’t as bad in Manchester-at least not yet.

Between 1999 and 2007 the number of children living in poverty in Manchester  increased from 15 to 25 percent. According to the NH Department of Education, the number of children in our school system who are eligible for free and reduced lunch has increased in the last 5 years from 33% to 46%. In contrast, Nashua has seen their rate increase from 30% to 38%. Part of the reason is the economy, but the other part is the decline in middle income families who are remaining in the city or choosing to move here. So what is the plan to reverse these trends and turn the city around?

I am an optimist and I believe that the economy will turn around and luckily Manchester is not located in the rust belt. Our city is the regional center of one of the most prosperous regions of one of the most prosperous states in the US.  I also think that Manchester is positioned well to take advantage of a growing trend among young adults to dismiss suburban life and head for more urban areas. They like the convenience of city living, are concerned about the cost of commuting both in terms of gas prices and the hours of their lives that are lost sitting in a car, and they like to get out engage in social and cultural activities.

In order for Manchester to fully realize its potential we must create a vision for our city’s future. Do we want to attract good paying high technology jobs? Then we need a good school system to prepare the workforce. Do we want the people who get those jobs to stay in Manchester, buy homes, pay taxes, and raise their families here? Then we need a good school system.

Over the last 5 years we have witnessed a serious decline in the quality of public education in the city. While teachers and staff struggle to transform our school system into the modern 21^st Century institution that it should be, they are being asked to teach more students and more classes, and go without basic resources. During the same time the tax bill for a $200,000 home has increased $10. This lack of commitment on the part of the city to improve or simply maintain an adequate public education system has led parents to believe that Manchester has no interest in supporting the educational needs of their children. Those who can afford it are leaving the city or shelling out big money for private schools to insure that their kids will have a bright future. This needs to change.

Where do we start? We need to build our skills to understand what the issues are in our school system and what the potential solutions are. Then we need to develop a strategic plan. Once we have that in hand we can invest in the things that will result in permanent improvement and will give us the best return on our investment. A good plan will also enable us to seek outside funding from government programs and foundations.

This is all within our grasp, but we need to be focused, organized, and committed.

Two things happened to me this morning.

The first thing was that, against my better judgment, I checked the online comments of yesterday’s City Hall column, because my name was mentioned in it. To my surprise I found the following comment:

“Staub’s answer for everything is throw more money at it.”

Now this surprised me because of the second thing that happened to me this morning. When I went to use my Sharp Carousel II microwave oven that I purchased for $99 in 1989 there was a funny smell and a strange glow emanating from the inside. It still works but it is likely to catch fire and burn my house down. So, after 22 years and a couple of replacement turntables, the time has come to invest in a new microwave oven.

If our online commenter was correct in his assessment of how I solve problems, I probably would have run out and bought a new microwave years ago when the defroster function ceased to work or when the turntable busted the first time, but I did not. My little microwave oven still met my needs, so I made  do.

Now, however, given the prospect of an electrical fire or exposure to microwave radiation, I will head to the mall to replace it because a microwave oven is a useful thing to have. Our online commenter probably thinks I’m going to go out and buy the most expensive microwave I can find, but I’m not going to. First, I’m going to look a Consumer Reports and see which brands are most reliable. I don’t want to have to buy another one in a just a couple of years. I am so fed up with cheap appliances that don’t last.

I also don’t need all the bells and whistles, so I don’t plan on paying extra for them, but I would like one that will fit in the same small area under the cabinet where the current one is installed.

I won’t be buying the most expensive microwave oven, but I also probably won’t be buying the cheapest one either. I’ll be looking for the one that will give me the greatest return on my investment.

That is also my plan if I am elected to the school board, to make decisions that will result in the greatest return on our educational investment.

The commenter also said something else.

“If the schools need more money fine but I for one am not convinced that they are good stewards of the money we have given them so far!”

I agree that the school board could educate itself and become more effective in the decisions it makes. One of my goals is to learn as much as I can about what it takes to be an effective school board member. I also think that the board should do a better job of educating the public about the challenges that our school district faces and demonstrate to the public that they are being good stewards. That would be another one of my goals.

One thing is certain though. Things will never improve as long as the conversation is limited to one dimensional political rhetoric.

Luckily I still have plenty of campaign signs left

It is hard to believe that it has been two years since my unsuccessful campaign for school board at-large. I learned a lot during that campaign and in the intervening two years I have learned a lot more. This time around I was planning to run for the Ward 4 seat being vacated by Chris Herbert, who is running for Mayor. However, because of the 2010 census I am being redistricted into Ward 5  and ineligible to run for either seat.

Why would I want to run for school board? I have a number of reasons.

1.) The first reason  is my sense of civic duty.

I was born and brought up here and I feel a sense of responsibility to leave the place as good as or better than I found it. Besides, if decent, committed people aren’t willing to run for and serve in these offices, the government can’t run. Sadly, there are people who work really hard to keep public service an unattractive proposition. I think these people want to keep ordinary citizens away so they can have the field to themselves.  While I wouldn’t describe myself as a person who is exhilarated by politics, I’m not afraid of it either. And this issue is so important to me that I am beyond being intimidated.

2.) The second reason is my experience.

I have been a consumer of the Manchester Public School System for 17 years. I have had two children go through the system. My daughter graduated in 2007 and my son will be a senior at Central this year. In those 17 years I have served as a PTA officer at McDonough School and PTO officer at Hillside. I have been on the District In Need of Improvement Committees since the beginning. I helped found Manchester Coalition for Quality Education, a citywide group of parents and community members that advocates for better schools. I have been involved in two superintendent searches. And recently, I helped found a local education foundation committed to identifying new resources that can be applied to improving our public schools.  Between that and the work I have done to educate myself and others about promising practices in school reform I think I have a good idea of what we need to do.

3.)The third reason is that I am worried.

In many ways Manchester is the perfect place to raise a family. It is big enough that there is every convenience and every opportunity that a family would want and small enough that you don’t feel lost or threatened.  Young working families, many of whom aren’t interested in a sterile life in the suburbs, should be flocking to Manchester, but the school system is a deal breaker.

This report by Ken Johnson at the Carsey Institute shows that the middle class is leaving Manchester. People who can afford to move out of the city are buying houses in the suburbs. The median price of a home in Manchester has declined by 15% and the recent property tax revaluation by the city confirms that home values in Manchester have gone down between 15% and 20%. Commercial property values will likely also decline because when the people with money to buy things leave town, retailers follow them. This is the usual pattern of urban decline.

The Carsey study also states that the number of children living in poverty in Manchester has doubled over the last 10 years to more than 20%. Unless our teachers have the best training and resources, they cannot meet the challenges posed by children of the poor.  Without a good education they will never be able to secure decent jobs and will never know life without poverty.

Concerns about the quality of education in Manchester are not unfounded. The U.S. Department of education announced last year that Federal School Improvement Grants would be used to turn around the 500 worst performing schools in the country. Each state was asked to identify the 10 worst performing schools in their state. In New Hampshire 5 of the identified schools were in Manchester.

It is well past the time for us to take our heads out of the sand.

4.) The fourth reason is the potential

A city like Manchester is in a great position to take advantage of the growing trend of people moving back to urban areas. I also think that the community would support improvements to our school system if we engage and educate them.

We have a lot of talented and dedicated people working in our school system who could do amazing things with the right leadership and support in place. Manchester is a diverse city with businesses, colleges, and cultural institutions. By engaging these resources our school system would be able to  offer students unique learning experiences that they could never get in the suburbs.

Re-energizing our school system is within our grasp but we need to have vision, leadership, and a plan.

First, I got a note from somebody from Red River Threatres letting me know that she recorded the panel discussion after the screening of Waiting for Superman on Monday night and posted it on-line. Here is a link to the discussion.

http://www.youtube.com/user/RedRiverTheatres?feature=mhum#p/u

 The Nov. 9 discussion is also available. If it doesn’t appear, click on the ‘uploads’ tab. She actually posted a comment here on the blog  which has many links to their site.

 Now onto the budget,

The superintendent will be presenting his budget to the school board tonight at 7 PM at City Hall.

 You have probably heard that it is going to be a very difficult year. The $4+ million of Federal stimulus money, that the district used to pay for kindergarten teachers and assistant principals, is going away this year.

 In addition to the loss of revenue, the costs of salary and benefits are expected to increase significantly. Yesterday Stacey and I stopped by to talk to the Mayor about the Education Foundation and he told us that there will likely be a $10-$11 Million funding gap. In the paper he was quoted as saying that as many as 150 positions may be cut from the school district.

 Last week the Mayor’s office issued a press release stating that the tax rate had gone down from $17.85 in 2009 to $17.84 in 2010.

 Here is what the tax rates have looked like over the past three years

                            Muni                     County                 Local Ed                State Ed.              Total

2010                $9.28                    $ .96                      $5.41                    $2.16                    $17.84

2009                $9.27                    $1.02                    $5.34                    $2.22                    $17.85

2008                $8.05                    $1.04                    $5.98                    $2.28                    $17.35

One piece of good news is that the NH Supreme Court overturned the Tax Cap saying that it interferes with state laws that grant the power to set the budget with the aldermen.  Eventually someone will pass a law in Concord saying that this is OK. In the meantime, it can’t be enforced.  And that is good news because the tax cap limits budget and tax increases to the rate of the Consumer Price Index for the previous year. In 2009 the CPI was -.04% There is a provision to override it with a 2/3 vote but that won’t matter this year.

 About 1/3 of our education funding comes from the state in the form of an adequacy grant . Last year we got $49 Million. That was less than we were supposed to get under the transition plan for the new formula, but given the state of the economy the amount was frozen. They only way the state was able to pay us that much was by using stimulus money.  This year they have $21 Million of that money left to put toward state adequacy grants.

The Mayor wants the teachers’ union to open their contract again this year and renegotiate their health insurance contribution. The MEA leadership has said they have no intention of doing that. I have been told that teachers currently contribute 5%. If that is not accurate, please let me know.

 In 2009 the tax base was about $9.75 Billion. I am waiting for the tax rate to be posted on the NH DRA site so I can compare apples to apples, but I think the tax base remained fairly stable between 2009-2010. Hopefully it will remain stable going forward. If it does, the aldermen would need to raise the tax rate on schools by about $1.00 to make up the shortfall.  Based on ten years of watching this process, I will tell you that that would be politically risky, but not impossible. I think it would be wise for us to start saying that an increase in the tax rate, given the circumstances, is reasonable.

 I have been doing this for ten years now so I leave out a lot of details. Please feel free to respond to this e-mail if you need clarification about something. This is a closed newsletter so the reply goes to me alone. I am going to post this whole thing on the blog.

 On Sunday, Nov. 7  there was an item in the Sunday News’ City Hall column saying that the superintendent is preparing an RFP to hire an outside consulting firm to create a redistricting proposal. There has been a lot of talk about overcrowding at Weston and Northwest  Elementary Schools in particular. 

 In 2004 the school district hired NESDEC to do an elementary enrollment study and develop some options for dealing with overcrowding. I think this was done mostly because very little consideration was given to the elementary schools space needs in the  big design build project.

At the same time, the Aldermen are struggling with whether to sell a 39 acre property off Wellington Rd to a developer or to save it for a school building. Weston School is located on Hanover Street right next to the exit from Route 101. Recently there has been a lot of development in that area which has included a lot of drive-thru restaurants and gas stations. The planned  reconstruction of Brennan’s restaurant was rejected because the drive-thru establishments they wanted to include would have such a negative impact on school safety. If more classroom seats are needed in that section of town there is no room to build on to Weston without taking homes by eminent domain.

The next year is a really good time to look at enrollments and do some long range planning because the data from the 2010 census is due out soon. Last month I saw a presentation by the Carsey Institute’s demographer Ken Johnson. He said that the preliminary reports will be out in January and the detailed reports are due out in April. This will give us detailed information about birthrates, where the little kids are located, and how many of them there are. If you overlay this information with planning department information about development and  you get a good idea of what long-term trends look like.

Neighborhoods tend to be cyclical. In a new development lots of young families move in and you need a lot of school capacity. Then the kids grow up and move on and the parents remain in the homes for another 20 to 30 years. Often entire neighborhoods turn over within a couple of years as older people sell out and young families repopulate the area.

Dr. Brennan was in Manchester the last time we redistricted. He said that it is time-consuming and very emotional. Having an outside entity might be a good idea, as long as they don’t just tell the board what they want to hear.

The premiere of Waiting for Superman has generated a lot of media attention on the issue of eduation reform. As promised, I am putting up some of the related links from the last week.

Here is a link the Waiting for Superman website. I will keep an eye out for when the movie might get shown in our neck of the woods.

NBC and MSNBC have run a series of stories on education this week and launched a site called Education Nation

Oprah Winfrey had two shows about the movie and she posted a number of things on her site.

There are other sites and publications that have responded to the opening of the film but I think these provide a good start as they link to other sites.

I’m also going to put up the link to the Joyce Foundation report about building great teachers through support and professional development opportunities.

And the NY Times story on the success of Brockton High School and the Harvard Report the school was featured in How High Schools Become Exemplary

This morning I opened up my newspaper and there was a big headline, ” Hillside student promotions questioned“. According to the article 13% of students at Hillside were “socially promoted” meaning that they went to the next grade in spite of failing grades. McLaughlin had 7.5% and Southside had 4.3%. There were no numbers for Parkside but the previous year there was a 4.2% rate.

Of course this is only a part of the story. We have no idea how many kids were retained in any of the middle schools, or what the circumstances were for these students. Under current policy students can be retained once at elementary and once in middle school. That will change next year due to a new policy passed by the board this year. Students will be able to be held back twice at each level, and heads will roll if they aren’t.

The great thing about data is that it gives you a bird’s eye view of the situation and enables you to see trends. However, in order to really understand the root causes, you need to examine what Dr. Brennan calls the “ground truth”.  Dr. Brennan is planning to meet with the Assistant Principals to learn more about these cases.

It may be that a disproportionate number of Hillside parents know that retention in middle school increases the likelihood that a student will eventually drop out of school 19 fold and, when consulted by the school, they insisted that their children be moved forward.  And then there is the Hillside parents’ prayer, “If we can just get them to Central, they’ll be fine.”

It may be that lot of kids in Lynn Manning’s class flunked English and they felt that it was more likely caused by the teacher’s personal problems than the kids’ abilities or attitudes, and it would be unfair to sentence a group of 12-year-olds to a lifetime of failure, poverty, and potential incarceration on account of it. Although Debra Langton doesn’t buy that, in this morning’s paper she said, “I don’t see where staff issues had anything to do with the performance of a child.” Seriously?

It may be that a significant number of students have already been retained once in middle school and under current policy they can’t be retained again. Besides, is middle school an appropriate place for a 16-year-old.

When I look at the numbers what I want to know is, why are so many kids receiving failing grades? How do we get more kids to pass?

I looked at the NECAP scores for Hillside and the kids actually do better than the district average in most cases.

Grade 7

Grade 8

Level 4=Proficient w/ distinction  Level 3=Proficient  Level2=Partially Proficient  Level1=Substantially below proficient

The flip side of this is why are so many kids passing who have not mastered the skills? However, given Debra Langton’s statements that “They are just not doing the work; they don’t care.  At least a consequence could be summer school.” It sounds like this is more about exacting retribution on kids who don’t do as they are told than it is about acquisition of skills or knowledge.

On closer examination of the Grade 8 math scores it is apparent that there is something amiss in Manchester.

As you know, the school district wanted to implement a new math instruction program next year, but the school board did not approve it. Something about not having any money.  I don’t understand what that $3 million textbook loan is for, if it isn’t for things like this. Right now our middle school math teachers have to put together their own program based on the state standards. They have to develop their own materials and instructional strategies. It can take years to figure out what is effective and what isn’t. With a proven math program, the basics are there and they have already been vetted for efficacy. This way instruction is consistent from classroom to classroom and school to school, and it minimizes the chance that kids will miss a critical concept as they move from grade to grade. As teachers gain more experience they build on it. If a substitute has to come it, it is easier to keep kids on track. Last year at Hillside there were 2 sixth grade teams that each had long-term substitutes in three different subjects.

This is just one more example of the culture clash between the employees of the school district who are focused on improving instruction by getting more professional development and better instructional materials, and the school board who are operating with a world view from 1972.

Personally, I’m tired of these insinuations that the kids are the problem. Our children are not intellectually deficient. They are not the spawn of the devil. We are not raising them like hyenas and all of them, regardless of their circumstances, deserve a shot at a decent education. Our elected officials need to stop blaming the children and fix the system, even though children can’t vote.

Maybe we need to grade the school board before the next election to see if they deserve to be promoted/re-elected.

The other night I attended the school board meeting. I try not to let it get me down but the other night I just couldn’t help it.

The Mayor has decided that he wants to shut down the school system’s IT department and have their responsibilities taken over by the city’s IT department. Currently the school district has a staff of 6 people who maintain the school district’s 1000 computers  (many of which are more than a decade old) and are now working on implementing the Student Information System and the much sought after by me, Parent Portal.

Of course, Ted Gatsas has tried to eliminate school district departments in the past and will probably keep trying  to make the school district into a city department until he is 100. And that is why I was so discouraged. It’s like the movie Ground Hog Day. We never seem to be able to move on. Interestingly, this whole tug of war started over a computer system. Way back in the last century the city installed a new financial management software program that turned out not to be very good. The school district was not getting the information that it needed and the superintendent, Len Bernard, got raked over the coals by the school board for overspending a special education account by $150,000.

This led to the school district and city going to court to separate the two entities and all the nasty divorce-like activities that occurred in the aftermath. Ten years later it still keeps coming up like a bad meatball sandwich. It is a distraction and it continues to keep us from focusing on what is important.

The mayor says this is being done to make city government more efficient. The city currently has a staff of 21 people in their IT department and I suppose making them do twice as much work would make city government more efficient.

However, I don’t think a pared down IT department is what we need. This is the 21^st Century, so rather than looking at technology as a financial drain on our system we need to think of it as our greatest potential asset when it comes to improving student achievement and getting more of a return on our education dollars.

Yesterday I was reading an article on the Edutopia Blog. In describing a “good” school they said,

“Carstens has done just about everything right: A stellar leader works closely with her devoted staff to give every child personal attention; they use data to adapt their teaching to students’ diverse needs; and teachers work in teams to ensure that no student falls between the cracks”

The key to making this happen is technology. All of the assessment information from teachers and specialists will go into the Aspen Student Information System and then teachers and administrators will be able to use the information to identify kids who are falling behind and get them caught up. From what I have read, it is critical that this information be made available to teachers immediately and in a form that is easy to use.

This is how modern urban school districts turn themselves around and because it is so critical I believe that the people who are in charge of it should answer to the superintendent.  This work might not be such a high  priority if the people working on it are city employees. Think about how long it takes to get building repairs done.

There were a few of the tech people from the schools at the board meeting as well. Debi Rapson, who is the person who does our Parent Guide, started teaching computer graphic design at Memorial this year. She pointed out that the Photoshop software her students use is 7 releases behind the current version. Most of the PC’s in her building are running Office 97. If the goal of our schools is to prepare students as future employees, why are we training them to use software from the last century?

Most of our computers and software are old and outdated and our IT people function much like the car mechanics in Havana who labor to keep those 57 Chevy’s on the road. Maybe we should use some of the $3 million loan from the aldermen to buy new equipment and software. Then our IT people can focus on developing ways to use technology to improve instruction and student achievement instead of replacing parts and putting in patches to make the software work.

Computers have been around in education for a while, but it has only been in the last decade that educators have discovered how they can be used to understand student needs and personalize education. This is very exciting and the people who have embraced it have been able to do remarkable things. We should be among them.